Fable 5 最新动态与时间线

完整时间线：从发布到停用

根据公开来源独立整理。官方声明、媒体报道、社区讨论和预测会分开标注；每条都链接到来源。

1. 2026 年 1 月 报道

   Anthropic 阻止第三方工具使用订阅登录

   服务器端检查让 OpenCode 等工具无法再用 Claude Pro/Max 订阅 token 登录；Anthropic 称这违反服务条款。

   The Register →
2. 2026 年 2 月 报道

   消费者订阅登录被限制在 Claude 官方应用内

   Anthropic 进一步说明，Free/Pro/Max 登录 token 不能用于其他产品，包括 Agent SDK；OpenCode 随后移除 Claude 支持。

   Winbuzzer →
3. 2026 年 4 月 报道

   订阅用户被告知第三方工具需额外付费

   Anthropic 向用户发邮件称，订阅额度不能覆盖 OpenClaw 等第三方工具调用，并一度切断 OpenClaw 作者的付费 API 访问。

   TechCrunch →
4. 2026 年 5 月 13 日 报道

   Agent SDK / 程序化使用的单独额度池被宣布

   Anthropic 称从 6 月 15 日起，付费方案会为 Agent SDK、“claude -p”和第三方应用提供独立月度额度；交互式 Claude Code 不受影响。

   The New Stack →
5. 2026 年 6 月 9 日 官方

   Anthropic 公开发布 Claude Fable 5 和 Mythos 5

   Fable 5 作为 Anthropic 当时最强的公开模型发布，同时推出面向受审查组织的 Mythos 5。

   CNBC →
6. 2026 年 6 月 10 日 社区

   越狱者 “Pliny the Liberator” 声称绕过 Fable 5

   一条病毒式传播的“越狱警报”声称绕过了 Fable 5 的安全保护；之后政府提到的风险背景与此类漏洞相关。

   X (@elder_plinius) →
7. 2026 年 6 月 12 日 官方

   美国出口管制指令迫使 Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 下线

   Anthropic 称收到指令，需暂停任何外国公民访问；由于无法实时核验国籍，公司对全球所有客户关闭两个模型。Opus 4.8 等其他模型不受影响。

   Anthropic →
8. 2026 年 6 月 12 日 报道

   商务部长信件据称提到向中俄转移风险

   公开报道显示，美国商务部长 Howard Lutnick 致信 Dario Amodei，称存在向受关注国家军事用户转移的“不可接受风险”。

   Bloomberg →
9. 2026 年 6 月 12 日 报道

   媒体称 Amazon 的警告触发了行动

   报道称，Amazon CEO Andy Jassy 向政府提示 Fable 5 安全问题后，相关行动开始；Anthropic 据称只有约 90 分钟下线模型。

   Fortune →
10. 2026 年 6 月 13 日 官方

    Anthropic 反驳召回必要性和越狱严重性

    Anthropic 称不同意召回必要性，认为演示只是“狭窄、非普遍”的越狱，暴露的是较小且已知的问题，并称正在努力恢复访问。

    Fortune →
11. 2026 年 6 月 13 日 报道

    美国首次把出口管制直接用于 AI 模型

    报道将此事描述为美国出口管制首次直接作用于 AI 模型，而不是芯片；David Sacks 等政府相关人士也参与公开讨论。

    Al Jazeera →
12. 2026 年 6 月 14 日 报道

    Sacks 称政府要求 Anthropic 修复或下架

    白宫 AI 顾问 David Sacks 表示，一旦越狱问题被修复，限制有可能解除，并称“球在 Anthropic 一边”。

    Tom's Hardware →
13. 2026 年 6 月 14 日 报道

    Anthropic 派高级员工赴华盛顿密集沟通

    Axios 报道称，Anthropic 派技术人员前往华盛顿，并几乎每天与官员会面，试图推动解除禁令。

    Axios →
14. 2026 年 6 月 15 日 官方

    原计划的 Agent SDK 额度调整被暂停

    Anthropic 暂停单独的程序化使用额度。帮助中心称目前没有变化：Agent SDK、“claude -p”和第三方用量仍计入订阅原有限额。

    Claude Help Center →
15. 2026 年 6 月 16 日 预测

    预测市场押注相对较快恢复

    Kalshi 交易者给出约 58% 的概率，认为访问会在 7 月 1 日前恢复。这反映的是市场情绪，不是分析师预测。

    CNBC →
16. 2026 年 6 月 17 日 官方

    Fable 5 和 Mythos 5 仍暂停，暂无恢复日期

    截至 6 月中旬，两个模型仍未恢复，也没有承诺的恢复日期；Anthropic 称仍在努力恢复访问，谈判继续。

    Anthropic →
17. June 17, 2026 官方

    Anthropic exec: models back “in the coming days”

    At a Seoul press conference, Anthropic's Managing Director of International Chris Ciauri says the company is “very confident that in the coming days, the models will become available again.” By late June that had not happened.

    Korea JoongAng Daily →
18. June 18, 2026 报道

    Reported trigger: a South Korean telecom's early Mythos access

    WIRED reports the directive was prompted in part by SK Telecom — a $100M Anthropic investor flagged over suspected China ties — gaining early Mythos 5 access through Anthropic's Project Glasswing consortium.

    WIRED →
19. June 19, 2026 报道

    Trump softens: Anthropic not a security threat “now”

    Asked on The Axios Show whether he views Anthropic as a national-security threat, President Trump says “not now, but a week ago, maybe,” and calls Dario Amodei “nice” and “smart” after meeting him at the G7 — while not ruling out Defense Production Act powers.

    Axios →
20. June 24, 2026 报道

    Reports: Amodei pulled from White House talks, Tom Brown steps in

    Per WIRED-sourced reporting, Anthropic sidelined CEO Dario Amodei from the negotiations — handing them to Anthropic's Tom Brown and policy chief Sarah Heck — with one official quoted that Brown “can actually engage.” This is about the talks only; there is no evidence Amodei is leaving as CEO.

    Gizmodo →
21. June 25, 2026 官方

    A viral “Fable 5 is back” wave is a UI bug — access still zero

    After screenshots claim Fable 5 reappeared in Claude Code's model picker, Anthropic staff say they are “serving exactly 0 traffic” to the model and call reports of restored access “categorically false” — a front-end display bug, not real access.

    explainx.ai →
22. June 26, 2026 发布

    OpenAI launches GPT-5.6 (Sol / Terra / Luna) — also gated by the US government

    OpenAI previews a tiered GPT-5.6 family; flagship Sol claims a Terminal-Bench lead over Claude Mythos 5 and the suspended Fable 5 (OpenAI-reported numbers). Like Fable 5, it is access-restricted: only ~20 government-approved partners can use it, via the API and Codex — not consumer ChatGPT.

    Axios →
23. June 26, 2026 官方

    The first model is cleared to return: Mythos 5 for 100+ US organizations

    Anthropic says the US government notified it that Mythos 5 — its strongest cybersecurity model and Fable 5's sibling — can be redeployed to US organizations that operate and defend critical infrastructure (reported as 100-plus institutions, and notably including their non-American employees). Anthropic is restoring access for them quickly and says it's still working to make Fable 5 available for general use again. Fable 5 itself remains suspended for the public.

    NBC News →
24. June 27, 2026 发布

    Mythos 5 starts coming back online — on Amazon Bedrock and Microsoft Foundry

    The cleared Mythos 5 begins redeploying to vetted US critical-infrastructure organizations through Anthropic's Project Glasswing, with model access returning on Amazon Bedrock and Microsoft Foundry. Fable 5 for the general public is still not back — fifteen days into the suspension.

    AWS →
25. June 30, 2026 官方

    The US lifts the export controls on Fable 5

    The US government withdraws the June 12 export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, clearing the way for a full public return. Anthropic announces redeployment plans the same day.

    Al Jazeera →
26. July 1, 2026 官方

    Fable 5 returns worldwide — plus a new cheaper model, Claude Sonnet 5

    Anthropic restores Fable 5 globally across the Claude platform, Claude.ai, Claude Code, and Cowork, included on paid plans for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7. Claude Sonnet 5, a cheaper agent-focused model, ships alongside it at $2/$10 per million tokens (through Aug 31).

    Anthropic →
27. 2026 年 7 月 8 日 官方

    OpenAI：GPT-5.6 将于 7 月 9 日公开，政府限制解除

    OpenAI 确认 GPT-5.6 的 Sol、Terra 和 Luna 将于 7 月 9 日公开上线。公布的 API 价格为每百万 token：Sol $5/$30、Terra $2.50/$15、Luna $1/$6；Sol 约为 Fable 5 token 价格的一半。

    Neowin →
28. 2026 年 7 月 9 日 官方

    GPT-5.6 面向所有人上线——ChatGPT、API 和 Codex

    OpenAI 于 7 月 9 日正式开放 Sol、Terra 和 Luna，并在一天内完成全球上线。价格确认保持为 Sol $5/$30、Terra $2.50/$15、Luna $1/$6（每百万 token），GitHub Copilot 同日加入三个模型。

    OpenAI →
29. 2026 年 7 月 8 日 官方

    延长：Fable 5 的付费订阅内使用延长至 7 月 12 日

    在原窗口即将结束时，Anthropic 宣布把 Fable 5 的付费订阅内使用延长 5 天，至 7 月 12 日。所有付费方案仍自动适用，最多占每周使用上限的 50%。

    TestingCatalog on X →
30. 2026 年 7 月 8 日 官方

    xAI 发布 Grok 4.5——切换窗口期出现更便宜的编程模型

    xAI 发布首个面向编程和智能体工作的 Grok 4.5，价格为每百万 token 输入 $2 / 输出 $6，明显低于 Fable 5 的用量积分价格。

    TechCrunch →
31. 2026 年 7 月 12 日 官方

    再次延长：Fable 5 的付费订阅内使用延长至 7 月 19 日

    Anthropic 再次延长付费订阅内使用窗口，这次延长至 7 月 19 日。Pro、Max、Team 和部分 Enterprise 方案仍自动适用，最多占每周使用上限的 50%；之后转为每百万 token 输入 $10 / 输出 $50 的用量积分计费。

    @claudeai on X →
32. July 18, 2026 官方

    Permanent: Fable 5 stays on Max and Team Premium — Pro moves to credits with $100 included

    One day before the window was due to close, Anthropic announces the lasting arrangement: from July 20, Fable 5 remains included on Max and Team Premium plans at up to 50% of weekly limits — described as permanent, not another extension — while Pro and Team Standard move to usage credits at $10 input / $50 output per million tokens, cushioned by a one-time $100 credit. The reversal lands amid open price pressure from GPT-5.6 Sol at half Fable 5's token rate.

    The Decoder →
33. July 16, 2026 官方

    Moonshot ships Kimi K3: near-Sol coding scores, open weights, $3/$15

    Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3, a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE with a 1M-token context and native vision. Self-reported Terminal-Bench 2.1: 88.3 — just under GPT-5.6 Sol's 88.8 and above Fable 5's published score — at $3/$15 per million tokens with a 90% cache discount. Open weights are promised by July 27. Another serious budget seat in the model mix as Fable 5's split takes effect.

    Simon Willison →
34. July 24, 2026 官方

    Anthropic ships Claude Opus 5 — near-Fable intelligence at half the price

    Four days after the split took effect, Anthropic launches Claude Opus 5 at $5 input / $25 output per million tokens — unchanged from Opus 4.8, and exactly half of Fable 5's rate. The company positions it as delivering nearly all of Fable 5's intelligence; it becomes the default model on Max and the strongest model included with Pro. Anthropic also says Opus 5 runs with roughly 85% fewer safety-classifier interventions than Fable 5 and is exempt from the 30-day retention policy. For Pro users weighing the one-time $100 Fable credit, this resets the question.

    CNBC →